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What is Agency Debt?

This page shows Agency Debt.

Agency Debt: That’s the amount of debt outstanding issued by federal agencies (such as FHLB and GNMA) and government-sponsored enterprises (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

Up to now, Agency Debt has not been included in the total debt of the United States government as published by the United States Department of the Treasury.

 

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Today the Federal Debt is about $21,850,093,880,675.80.

The amount is the gross outstanding debt issued by the United States Department of the Treasury since 1790 and reported here.

But, it doesn’t include state and local debt.

And, it doesn’t include so-called “agency debt.”

And, it doesn’t include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Federal Debt per person is about $66,963.

Projected and Recent US Agency Debt Numbers

Fiscal
Year
Total
Agency Debt
GSE DebtAgency/GSE
Mortgage
Pool Debt
2018*$9.26 trln$6.97 trln$2.29 trln
2017$8.86 trln$6.76 trln$2.10 trln
2016$8.49 trln$6.56 trln$1.93 trln
2015$8.14 trln$6.37 trln$1.78 trln
2014$7.92 trln$6.28 trln$1.65 trln
2013$7.77 trln$6.20 trln$1.57 trln

Note:

* Agency Debt after 2017 is “guesstimated.”

Agency Debt Charts   also: Spending Charts  Revenue Charts  Debt Charts  Deficit Charts  

 

Recent US Agency/GSE Debt

Chart D.21f: Recent US Agency Debt

Chart D.22f: Recent US Agency Debt in Pct GDP

Agency Debt, i.e. debt issued by US agencies and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and not counted as US Treasury debt, increased briskly from $6 trillion in 2005 to over $8 trillion in 2008. But the real-estate collapse stopped the increase in agency debt, and since 2008 agency debt has remained at or a little below $8 trillion.

Viewed as percent of GDP, agency debt increased substantially against the headwinds of the early decline in the real-estate market, peaking at over 56 percent GDP in 2009. Since the Crash of 2008 agency debt has steadily decreased as a percent of GDP, down to 45 percent GDP in 2014.

US Agency Debt Since 1945

Chart D.23f: Agency Debt since 1945

Agency debt (primarily debt from agencies and government-sponsored enterprises like the Federal National Mortgage Association that securitize home mortgage debt) started the immediate post World War II era at with a level of debt less than 0.5 percent of GDP and didn’t hit 1 percent of GDP till 1957.

But then agency debt began an exponential rise, with debt hitting 2 percent of GDP in 1965, blowing past 5 percent of GDP in 1973, reaching 10 percent of GDP in 1981.

Agency debt blew past 20 percent of GDP in 1988, exceeded 30 percent of GDP in 1995, and hit 40 percent of GDP in 1999, and agency debt peaked at 52 percent of GDP in 2003 at the end of the 2000-02 recession.

In the 2000s expansion agency debt declined to 46.7 percent of GDP by 2006, but then blew off in the Crash of 2008, peaking at 56.1 percent of GDP in the Great Recession year of 2009.

After the Crash of 2008 agency debt decreased rapidly to 46.6 percent of GDP by 2012 and then began a more gradual decline to 45.5 percent of GDP by 2014.

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Debt Data Sources

Debt data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of debt data sources here.

Federal debt data begins in 1792.

State and local debt data begins in 1820.

State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Gross Federal Debt

Debt: $21,850,093,880,675.80

Data Sources for 2014_2023:

Sources for 2014:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances

Sources for 2023:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY18

On October 15, 2018, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2018 ending September 30, 2018, was $779 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2019 federal budget published in February 2018:

Federal Finances
FY 2018 Outcomes
Budget
billions
Outcome
billions
Receipts $3,340$3,329
Outlays$4,130$4,108
Deficit$833$779

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2018 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2018 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2018.

This FTS report on FY 18 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2018 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY20 budget in February 2019. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2018 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY18 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2018 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2020 federal budget is published in February 2019 with the actual outlays for FY 2018 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

presented by Christopher Chantrill

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